While ITEXPO is taking place in Miami this week, we thought we’d share with you a speech given by Internet pioneer Dr. Robert (Bob) M. Metcalfe at StartupCamp during last fall’s ITEXPO. During his presentation, Dr. Metcalfe reminisced about Steve Jobs, who approached him about designing Apple’s network (Metcalfe would have called it “orchard” instead of “Appletalk”) and who introduced him to Job’s own PR firm, convincing him to hire them before he hired a VP of engineering. As we saw from Jobs’ whole life, he put marketing before sales, product development, engineering or any other discipline. Marketing-as-priority #1 was passed on to Metcalfe. If both industry pioneers think marketing & PR are job #1, do you?

Metcalfe also shared his thoughts on what makes a startup successful, along with his vision of the future of innovation.

We think Dr. Metcalfe’s hard-earned wisdom about what makes startups and tech companies successful can perhaps be a catalyst to transforming your own business. Enjoy!

When Bob Metcalfe retired from 3Com in 1990, the company placed a plaque on the new headquarters with this inscription:

“The only way you can tell the difference between being stubborn and being a visionary
is whether or not you are right.”

There is no doubt that Bob Metcalfe -- the founder of 3Com and inventor of today's local-area networking standard, Ethernet -- is a visionary. During one of the best talks we’ve heard, Metcalfe, now a Professor of Innovation, Fellow of Free Enterprise and Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin Cockrell School of Engineering, shared some of the wisdom he now imparts to his students as he counsels them that they can one day change the world. As Dr. Metcalfe teaches, “How to get your startup going and get the free enterprise system to work for you.”

Metcalfe’s secret weapon

“My theory is the fate of startups depends on the networks that they form. Customer networks. Investor networks. Technical staffing networks,” said Metcalfe.  According to Metcalfe, startup networking and vision is the “secret weapon.” To illustrate, he recounted how, back in 1979 when he was launching 3Comm, his phone rang late one night. The caller?

“A young man introduced himself, said he was Steve jobs. He said he was from some company called Apple Computer in Cupertino.”

Metcalfe, along with the rest of the world, didn’t know who Jobs was at that time, so he asked Jobs to tell him about the company he was starting. Jobs did that, and explained his reason for calling that night. Metcalfe said, “Steve had heard that I was a networking expert and he felt that Apple needed to do networking eventually. Although their specialty then was the standalone PC, his vision was that eventually they would be networked and since I was the networking guy, he was looking for me. He invited me to Cupertino.”

Metcalfe went to Cupertino and met with Jobs, who did indeed want him to be the networking guy at Apple. Metcalfe turned Jobs down.

“Unfortunately, I had just incorporated my new company (3Com) and I had to break the news to Steve. And, you have to remember, I was doing this within Steve’s reality distortion field. So, I went to Cupertino and, amidst Steve’s reality distortion field, I explained to Steve that I had started my own company and I didn’t want to join Apple.

But I had this idea for networking his computers and I called it ‘orchard.’ A little glimmer of marketing there. Steve was very impressed that I called the network ‘orchard.’ And what he did, after I turned him down, was he recruited Bob Belleville, the guy who had worked for me at Xerox, and who became the head engineer on the Macintosh. And Bob immediately put a cheap Ethernet into the Macintosh –which was AppleTalk. Sort of Ethernet divided by 40. So, I missed the chance to design AppleTalk.”

It turns out that even though Metcalfe turned him down, Steve Jobs did him a favor. Jobs, who understood better than anyone that an innovative concept requires more than brilliant technology, introduced him to his own PR firm.

“He said, hey you’re starting this company. There are people I want to introduce you to. And he dragged me down onto Litton Avenue in Palo Alto to a business called Regis McKenna advertising and public relations. The first guy he introduces me to is an advertising and PR guy. Which gives you some hint of where Steve was going.”

Jobs went on to introduce him to others, but according to Metcalfe, 3Com had a PR firm before it had a VP of Engineering. “What benefited me was that Steve shared his network with me.”   Metcalfe told the audience, “I got the vision thing from Steve and it had a lot to do with the success of 3Com Corporation.”

“Let me visionate.” 

Metcalfe also shared what he sees as the future of the internet, which is where  video, mobile and embedded traffic intersect with energy, healthcare and education, there will be business opportunities.

At the end, Metcalfe took questions from the audience. Here are a few of his responses:

Q. Why do startups fail?

The uncontrollable ego of the founder. Lack of focus. “You just want to do too much and companies often die because they try to do too much.” Not enough money.

Q. What are the most important qualities a CEO of a startup should possess?

Metcalfe told the audience there are five things they should know:

1)     They should know that starting a company requires a lot of energy. (i.e., “take care of your health, not pulling all-nighters and subsiding on Ramen noodles and Coke and typing bugs in your software because you’re delusional”)

2)     You need to know how to write.

3)     You need to know how to speak.

4)     You need to know how to plan.

5)     And, you need to know how to sell.

Says Metcalfe, “The CEO should be able to do all of them, and here’s the secret to all of them: Listening.”

And, to wrap up, some final wisdom from Dr. Bob Metcalfe: “Not all life’s problems can be solved with a new website.”

The video is available here.

The Origin of PR Vibes:

We are a social and traditional PR agency serving the communications technology industry. We have produced the PR Vibes newsletter (at no cost to you) for more than 12 years now. A marketing executive who we wanted as a client once asked us “How are your relationships different than any other agencies?” He also said “I want a PR firm who has dinner and drinks with the reporters in the industry.” That day PR Vibes was born. As evidence. As proof that we actually know what’s going on within the publications and analyst firms; at the tradeshows and conferences; at the highest levels as well as at the beat level.

Over time, PR Vibes has evolved into 3 things:

I’ll ask you to think about these questions:

1.      Why do you read PR Vibes?

2.      Do you use PR Vibes to evaluate tradeshows?

3.      Do you use PR Vibes to update your media lists?

4.      Do you (or your agency) use Cision or Vocus or some other expensive service to keep up with this research? Why? Why not hire us?

At Calysto, we know the communications technology industry. In fact, Calysto invented the telecom-focused public relations agency back in 1999. Our mission both then and today: Connecting, energizing and influencing people in communications technology through communications.

We help fulfill this mission by collecting invaluable industry intelligence every day – and delivering it at no cost to you through PR Vibes.

Calysto’s Specialty Practices include applications, broadcasting & cable, enterprise networking, telecom and wireless & mobile. And Calysto has represented clients with businesses in cloud computing, IP voice, unified communications, mobile money, mobile health, mobile marketing, M2M, location-based services, connected home and video content delivery - to name just a few.

Calysto delivers what no other agency does: An all SVP-level team of professionals – each with 15 to 30 years of experience in both PR and communications technology – that provides the kind of efficiency that comes only from experience.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, “Rumors of the demise of CES have been greatly exaggerated.”

In spite of dire predictions that this year’s annual tech gadget extravaganza would be a bust, the Consumer Electronics Association announced that the 2012 International CES was the largest in the event’s 44-year history. Pre-audited attendance numbers were put at 153,000, including more than 34,000 international attendees.

The news that 2012 was the last year that Microsoft would be delivering the keynote and was also pulling out of the show prompted much of the handwringing about the viability of this event. Microsoft says it will not return to the show after this year, preferring to unveil products on its own schedule, just as Apple does not exhibit and sponsor at CES, or other major shows.
However, it’s worth pointing out that Apple does not ignore CES. Several media outlets reported that more than 250 Apple employees were among the registered attendees. Indeed, Tom Krazit of Paid Content recognized Greg Joswiak, head of iOS product marketing for Apple. “It’s not all that surprising that Apple would want to keep tabs on CES but I was a little surprised to see Joz, one of the higher-ranking executives in Apple’s hierarchy, walking the show floor like anybody else. His badge was strategically arranged as to cover over his name and company affiliation, however. A nod to Apple’s penchant for keeping a low profile.”

There was a lot to see at CES this year. The number of exhibitors was at an all-time high:  more than 3,100 exhibitors across the largest show floor in CES history – 1.861 million net square feet of exhibit space. And, more than 20,000 new products were launched. While one product didn’t emerge as the clear stand-out attraction, ultrabooks,  tablets, smartphones and smart products, Windows phones, dedicated gaming laptops and tablets, OLED TVs, 3D printing, apps, connected appliances and consumer-electronics devices controlled by gestures all rated lots of attention.

Most media and analysts covering the consumer electronics ecosystem attend CES.

For 2012, there were approximately 3,000 pre-registered media and analysts. Who was there?  ABC News, Good Morning America; Advertising Age, Huffington Post, BBC, Bloomberg, Businessweek, Boston Herald, CBS News, CNET, CNN, Computerworld, Consumer Electronics Daily, Consumer Reports, Digital Trends, Discovery Channel, Electronic Design, EE Times, Engadget, Forbes, FOX, Gizmodo, Good Housekeeping, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, IDG News Service, Inc., Information Week, iPhone Life Magazine, LA Weekly, Light Reading, Los Angeles Times, Macworld, Mobile Beat Magazine, Motor Trend, Multichannel News, Network World, Nickelodeon, Nuts & Volts Magazine, PC Magazine, PC World, Philadelphia Inquirer, Playboy Entertainment, Sound & Vision, Spike TV, TechCrunch, The New York Times, The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Thomas Reuters, Time Warner Cable, Time, TMC, U.S. News & World Report, UMB TechWeb, USA Today, VentureBeat, WIRED, ZDNet, CNBC, MSNBC, NBC, NBC Today Show, and Variety.

Media came to Las Vegas from more than 38 countries around the globe-- Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Columbia, Czech Ghana, Republic, China, Denmark, Dominican Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Venezuela.

According to CEA, more than 2,000 news articles were published about the show. Engadget alone had 600+ posts covering CES 2012, according to their site.
 
37 football fields. Too much?
Of course, the sheer size of CES-- more than 37 football fields filled with consumer technology -- poses challenges for everyone.

Yankee Group’s Carl Howe wrote:

“I can’t see everything, so what should I go to? The guideline I find myself using is a simple one: look for companies doing something very different from everyone else.” What I find intriguing here at CES is finding companies that are being different in other ways. Here are some of my nominees: The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) tablet. Mercedes, RIM and others serving connected drivers. Use of mobile devices in cars is completely different than pedestrians using mobile devices. These trends transcend differentiation by features and price. They change the way consumers think about technology and business.”

However, is an event of this size worth the investment?

CNET’s Harry McCracken wrote: “I came back from CES 2012 feeling smarter about the consumer-electronics industry, and better prepared for the year to come. That's all you can ask of an event like this. It's more than enough to keep the show valuable even in an era when giant trade shows are an endangered species.”

As many have proposed, Mary Branscombe of ZDNet UK suggested in a blog that the problem with CES is the timing of the event.

“The real problem with CES isn't the technology; it's the timing. Microsoft's valedictory keynote was widely misunderstood as meaning the company didn’t have anything new to talk about. It did - it's just that January is the wrong time to do it. In fact January is the wrong time for almost every technology company to talk about products, coming as it does right after Christmas, Thanksgiving and the start of the new school year. Retailers want to know about new products in July or August to get them in the shops or on the Web site for the big selling season. Consumers have spent their budget and aren't buying much in January. Lots of the products announced at CES won't be on sale until spring, and when you hear about something in January and see in it May, you think it's taken a long time coming and isn't very interesting any more. Announcing at CES undermines the impact of a spring or summer product, which is why several technology companies took pains to reassure us that what they were showing wasn't everything they'd have this year.
Move CES back to June or July and it would have much more impact. It would still be exhausting but I don't think we'd be arguing about whether it was still relevant.”

However, Calysto’s Keith Pillow, who conducted a successful media relations initiative on behalf of one of Calysto’s clients at CES, offered these comments. From a PR, branding and visibility perspective perspective, the ability to meet with key influencers, customers, prospects, journalists, and analysts makes the show very valuable. The vibe, at least in the foreseeable future, is that CES continues to be the major global showcase for the consumer electronics industry. I don’t see that changing any time soon. It’s always a fun, entertaining, well attended show. CES sets the tone for what consumers can expect to see in the remainder of 2012.”

In closing, we’ll leave you with Woot’s annual and obnoxiously entertaining “What We Saw at CES” song. We highly recommend it for work-place diversion!

Articles of Interest
 
CES 2012 Engadget

Mashable: CES 2012 Recap: Everything You May Have Missed

The Winners And Losers Of CES 2012
TechCrunch
By Devin Coldewey
Jan. 15, 2012

CES 2012 Highlights CNET

The big picture: What truly stood out at CES 2012
CNET
By Jennifer Guevin
January 14, 2012

Seven things I learned at CES 2012
CNET
By Harry McCracken
January 15, 2012

Tablets: Bruised and confused at CES 2012
CNET
By Donald Bell
January 14, 2012

Consumer Electronics Show highlights & horrors
CNN Money
Julianne Pepitone

EE Times editorial wrap up of CES

CES 2012: 10 Quick Takeaways
eWeek
By: Don Reisinger
2012-01-10

CES 2012: Ultrabook round-up
Engadget
By Daniel Cooper
Jan 14, 2012

CES 2012: tablet roundup
Engadget
By Brad Molen
Jan 14, 2012

CES 2012: Camera Makers Fight Back With Smart Devices
Forbes
Jan. 12, 2012

CES 2012 Smartphones: 7 New Devices That Stole The Show
The Huffington Post   
Jason Gilbert
1/13/12

CES 2012 Gadget Wrap-Up: Cool To Crazy
InformationWeek
Art Wittmann
01/14/2012

CES 2012: Peek At TV's Future
Information Week
Art Wittmann
01/13/2012

Why CES 2012 should have been called the Cloud Electronics Show
InfoWorld
By David Linthicum
Jan. 18, 2012

Sampling the Future of Gadgetry
The New York Times
By DAVID POGUE
January 11, 2012

The Best Products of CES 2012
By PCMag Staff
January 12, 2012

CES 2012 Coverage: PC World

CES 2012 Trends Revisited: Why The Year’s Hottest Tech Doesn’t Always Succeed
PCWorld
By Steve Fox
Jan 13, 2012

CES 2012: The Convergence of TV and Mobile Platforms
ReadWriteWeb
By Dan Rowinski
January 9, 2012

CES 2012: Tosy’s mRobo ‘Bieberbot’, 3D Systems Cube printer, Yurbud custom earbuds, Razer gaming tablet turn heads
The Washington Post with Bloomberg Business
By Hayley Tsukayama
January 12, 2012

At CES 2012, proposed anti-piracy legislation is a hot topic
The Washington Post with Bloomberg Business
By Cecilia Kang
January 11, 2012

Talking Your Tech: Favorites at CES
USA TODAY
By Jefferson Graham,
Jan. 12, 2012

The 12 Best, Quirkiest CES Gadgets We’ve Seen So Far
Wired
By Gadget Lab Staff
January 11, 2012

CES Panel Ponders Roots of Innovation
Wireless Week
By Andrew Berg
Jan. 12, 2012

CES 2012: still worth it, just the wrong time of year
ZDNet UK 
By Simon Bisson and Mary Branscombe
14 January, 2012

Finding Differentiation at CES--and Beyond
Yankee Group
Carl Howe
Jan. 10, 2011

Attendees: 403
Exhibitors: 5
Media/Analysts: a handful

The 10th annual Consumer Telematics Show (CTS) was held as usual, the day before the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Many involved in the automotive, telematics and consumer electronics industry view CTS as a great introduction to the latest communications technology for the auto industry which carries on into CES for the rest of the week.

This year’s theme, Realizing the Connected Car, focused on topics related to the future of the consumer telematics market. Gartner VP Thilo Koslowski gave the keynote presentation, “Telematics in 2012: What’s Ahead and How to Succeed,” and highlighted the rise in factory-installed telematics which is set to hit 62% in passenger vehicles by 2016. This is a critical year in the development of consumer telematics as companies race to bring the connected car to the masses.

Representatives from KIA and Audi were on-hand for two Exclusive OEM Sessions. Henry Bzeih, National Manager - Connected Car at KIA, unveiled UVO eServices as shown in this YouTube video, the next iteration of the company's voice-activated infotainment system that combines in-vehicle navigation and diagnostics with easy-to-use voice and touch-activation to manage music files and a hands-free mobile phone.

The Audi presentation was a big hit. Anupam Malhotra, Audi Connect Product Manager & Senior Strategist, Audi of America discussed Audi Connect, the company’s infotainment system that combines an in-vehicle Wi-Fi link with a navigation system. Eight additional sessions throughout the day focused on more general topics such as how to monetize telematics offerings, how to deliver dynamic content and apps safely to the driver, how next-gen navigation services are syncing home, phone and car and how to partner with wireless carriers to further the in-vehicle experience.

Audi has partnered with RACO Wireless to effectively turn their cars into mobile hotspots and connected devices. Powered by T-Mobile, RACO Wireless enables diagnostics, web connectivity (for weather, news, etc.) and navigation with Audi Connect. Drivers and passengers can connect their smartphones and tablets to the car to get online. Google Voice allows the driver to handle navigation without being distracted.

The one-day event had 25+ top level speakers from all of the major players in the auto industry: BMW, Ford, General Motors, Audi, Toyota, Continental, Wireless Car, Hughes Telematics, KIA, Mercedes-Benz and others, who participated in industry debates and who were available for networking opportunities. Roughly 400 people attended the event, up from 300 or so the previous year; typically half are senior level executives (CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents, General Managers) and about one quarter are engineers and business development managers.

Attendees were favorably impressed. Here is what some had to say about CTS 2012:

• “I think the value of the show is the networking character on top of some of the content, at least for me. I have attended these shows for the last 7 years.”
•  “At CES/CTS it is usually about new car OEM PR, i.e. Onstar, Ford, Daimler, Audi, Kia all showing off their latest in regards to connectivity, apps, smartphone integration, etc.”
• “This is my 3rd year attending this show. The Audi presentation and the demo of their Audi connect solution was the session that called my attention.”
• “I have attended other connected car conferences, but this was my first specifically focused on consumer telematics. I thought the OEM presentations were the most useful piece of the show. Audi was far and away the best presentation, because they clearly outlined their roadmap.”
• “There is an opportunity for Gartner or some other market research company to share more information as part of the discussion. Specifically, I'd like to see the show kick off with an overview of the OEM's platforms and strategies and current business results i.e. market penetration.”

Conclusion: The Consumer Telematics Show is a smaller conference (about 400 attendees, half senior executives), but favorably regarded and worth attending to hear the latest on communications technology for the auto industry. The smaller venue fosters good networking opportunities with peers in the industry. It is a good kick-off to the huge Consumer Electronics Show that begins the following day and continues for the rest of the week. Auto-makers had just five exhibits at CTS (AutoNavi, Audi, Telit, Teleca and INRIX); however, more telematics demonstrations could be seen at the nearby CES show. And there wasn’t much media coverage specific to CTS, just a few references within articles and blogs about CES.

Next: CTS 2013 is planned for January 7, 2013 (one day before the start of CES).

Articles of Interest:

Audi shows off 2013 A3 interior with new Audi Connect, we go hands-on [w/video]
By Damon Lavrinc
Autoblog.com
January 10, 2012
http://www.autoblog.com/2012/01/10/audi-shows-off-2013-a3-interior-with-new-audi-connect-we-go-han/

Consumer Electronic Show (CES) Turning into Big Tech Auto Show
By Kevin Dennehy
Fixed Ops Insight
January 13, 2012
http://www.fixedopsinsight.com/2012/01/consumer-electronic-show-ces-turning-into-big-tech-auto-show/

Do consumer telematics services have real potential, or are they just a distraction from less-exciting but more practical uses for in-vehicle connectivity?
By Jamie Moss
Informa Telecoms & Media
January 5, 2012
http://blogs.informatandm.com/3640/do-consumer-telematics-services-have-real-potential-or-are-they-just-a-distraction-from-less-exciting-but-more-practical-uses-for-in-vehicle-connectivity/

Can you tell us about NPD Connected Intelligence and how it came about?

NPD Connected Intelligence focuses on the confluence of devices, connectivity and content, the result of which creates the concept of a “connected world.”  It has been a concept I’ve been thinking about for the past five or so years, but it is only in the past year or so that the components have come together to form a true solution.

Typically, when most of us think about a "connected world," we have a natural bias towards either the mobility component, or the in-home side of connectivity. But the focus of NPD Connected Intelligence is to really consider how all connections come together to form a comprehensive network that empowers devices and leads to greater content. Think about TV and the latest influential role this device may have: it has rapidly moved from basic television content to a connected device and more recently to a "smart" TV that supports applications.

At the same time, mobile broadband has finally taken off, and not just as a component of smartphone use. We are seeing significant demand for connected tablets and notebooks through both embedded solutions as well as via mobile hotspots and USB sticks. While 60 percent of tablet users are currently using Wi-Fi only connections, that’s actually significantly down from where it was a year ago. And we expect to see that fall to the mid-fifties in the next six months: on-the-go connections are becoming a must-have.

And of course, we cannot forget Wi-Fi, which has moved beyond its in-home roots to become a viable wide-area solution, thanks to the telcos and cable companies.

At the same time, connectivity in the home is becoming a reality beyond just the laptop, with connected TVs, TV Everywhere services, cloud-based gaming and music and so on. As the two locational uses of home and mobile converge into one homogenous concept – and with nomadic use growing -- the result is demand for connectivity everywhere, regardless of the underlying technologies.

The Connected Intelligence service found its home as part of The NPD Group, which saw the huge potential in this concept -- shaping the original concept into a greater view of the market. Importantly, NPD has a whole host of existing services that focus on what is being purchased by consumers. This helps form the foundation of the NPD Connected Intelligence service.

Can you tell us about the market and specific areas that are on your radar?

NPD Connected Intelligence is focused on the U.S. consumer market and has three core focus areas that interrelate: Devices, Access and Content. Devices covers the growing demand for connected devices - and how these are potentially cannibalizing other device categories. Access focuses on the broadband services, looking at consumer adoption of the services, and the forecasted growth of broadband access. Content looks at demand for services and how this then drives demand for faster access and devices.

How does NPD Connected Intelligence differentiate itself?

We differentiate through both the methodology of the service, as well as through the uniqueness of our content mix. From a methodology focus, each of our segments has four core areas that are addressed:

Availability. What products and/or services are on the market that consumers may purchase? Adoption. What products and/or services are consumers buying, or planning to buy? Application. How are consumers using the products and services? This is often drastically different from the assumption, based on adoption. For example, just because a consumer purchased a connect-capable TV does not mean that they actually do connect it and use the available services on an ongoing basis. Innovation. Based on what consumers are buying, and how they are using them, what should the OEMs, service providers and content providers do next to improve their products?

From a content source, The NPD Group has sales data in many consumer categories. This provides a very strong foundation for understanding what consumers are purchasing, and where the purchase takes place. In addition, we leverage a wholly-owned consumer panel and have recently launched a smartphone metering solution, all of which we combine together to provide even greater insight into consumer behavior.

Who are your target audience/key customer segments?

The key audience comprises OEMs and service providers who focus on the consumer market in the U.S., as well as content providers who are struggling to understand this very dynamic space and must place bets on which platforms are likely to be long-time successes with consumers.

What services does NPD Connected Intelligence provide?

At its core, NPD Connected Intelligence is a syndicated service with ongoing deliverables. These include market research reports, as well as data-focused coverage that includes purchase intent reporting and market share and forecasting where required. The service includes inquiry as well, which is clearly a fundamental requirement for any successful analyst firm: understanding the needs of your customers is core to maintaining a strong market presence.

But in addition to the syndicated service, we also support custom requests from our clients.

Anything new on the horizon?

Always! This is a market that is growing rapidly and our product mix will evolve to keep up with the changes. More importantly, we are very client-focused and when we have clients asking us to expand our coverage in logical ways, we certainly look at the potential. A case in point is in the mobile broadband space. Our original plan did not include a market share and forecast report, but early feedback we received convinced us to launch this product as part of the Access service. It’s been a popular addition.

More products will be added in the next 12 months for sure.

What do you see as the key technology/trends for the next 12 months?

The one phrase you hear in all aspects of the mobile fixed CE markets is ecosystem: how can carriers ensure that they remain consumer-related when the consumer is buying into a specific ecosystem, be it Android, Apple, Google or any other one that springs to mind? And how do mobile device manufacturers also retain their consumer customers when there is little barrier to change (because the mobile barrier is now the Android ecosystem, not the specific manufacturer’s product)? It keeps a lot of people up at night and will certainly cause new innovation and changes in the next 12 months.

How do you go about identifying emerging trends?

We have a number of different ways to detect trends at various points in their path. First of all, DisplaySearch, a subsidiary of NPD, tracks display technology and shipments. This provides a heads-up of things that are still a year or more away from the retail shelves, and helps with product trends. But more importantly in many respects is seeing how consumers use the products they buy. There is often a major gap between how consumers plan to use a product and then how they really use it. By tracking both, we get an early insight into how the market needs to change to address consumer requirements. Add all of that to sales data and you have a strong solution for trend detection.

Over the course of your career, would you say there has there been any market trend/event that has surprised you?

Yes….

The interesting thing about this market is that history no longer necessarily helps us to understand the future. I realize that flies in the face of common belief, but the tech market is often without a logical precedent. Take for example, the launch of the iPad. It should have failed, based on previous evidence (price point, limited functionality – i.e., no Office compatibility, and the fact that it didn’t immediately cannibalize any other product). And yet, a significant portion of the U.S. population carries one around as well as a laptop, phone, etc.

The lesson I learned a few years ago is that while looking back over one’s shoulder has benefits and can ground you, it means you are not necessarily looking where you are going which is never a good thing…